Poljak Group Wealth Management | Shreveport, LA
Weekly Market Insight
Today's Market Recap
Dow +0.09%, S&P 500 +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.42%,Russell 2000 (0.47%)
- US equities were mixed in Monday trading. Only two sectors higher, though breadth only slightly negative, while S&P 500, Nasdaq set fresh record closes. Larger-cap semis, memory both rallied. Big tech mostly lower. Laggards included airlines, cruise lines, regional banks, moneycenter banks, online brokers, autos, home improvement, housing-linked retail, apparel, A&D, pharma/biotech, small-caps, paper/packaging, coatings, and building materials. Software a huge gainer today. Other outperformers included energy, homebuilders, casinos, tech hardware, IBs, custody banks, trucking, and networking/IT equipment; retail-investor favorites also fared well. Treasuries mostly weaker with the curve flattening after last week's rally; off worst levels with yields up 3-4 bp at short-end. Dollar index up 0.3%. Gold finished down 1.9%. Silver was down 0.8%. Bitcoin futures down 2.5%. WTI crude was up 5.5%, off best levels after falling nearly 10% last week. (FactSet)
- Oil and yields up amid latest cautious Middle East updates. Headline noise around Iran remains elevated, continues to offer mixed takeaways. Sentiment helped by afternoon update around Israel delaying planned airstrikes on Lebanon at US request, Trump saying Iran talks continuing. Updates offset earlier cautious tone after Iranian state media said Tehran has suspended talks led by mediators, will fully block Strait of Hormuz. However, market remains optimistic on eventual resolution despite ongoing setbacks (weekend's kinetic flare-up, reports of lingering issues surrounding nuclear commitments, and timing/magnitude of financial relief). (FactSet)
- May ISM Manufacturing index beat, highest since May-22. Prices paid ticked lower though remain elevated, employment index better but remains in contraction territory. April construction spending beat, March revised down. Final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI marked down 0.2 points from flash to 55.1. Output still strongest since Apr-22, though prices indexes also remain highest since 2022. JOLTS job openings the highlight on Tuesday. In addition. Fed's Kashkari and Hammack scheduled to speak. Wednesday brings ADP private payrolls for May, final S&P Global US services PMI, May ISM services, April factory orders and the Fed's Beige Book. Fed's Barr and Logan also scheduled to speak. Initial claims and final nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs out on Thursday. Barkin and Daly the Fed speakers. May employment report caps off the week on Friday. (FactSet)
Last Week's Market Recap (Monday, May 25th - Friday, May 29th)
Dow +0.90%, S&P 500+1.43%, Nasdaq +2.39%, Russell 2000 +1.75%
- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both ended last week at fresh record highs with the S&P 500 up for a ninth-straight week and Nasdaq up for an eighth week in the past nine. Big tech was mostly higher. Other outperformers included software, Internets, airlines, cruise lines, copper and aluminum, trucking, parcels and logistics, and homebuilders. Laggards included staples, energy, discounters China tech, QSRs, moneycenter banks, and entertainment. (FactSet)
- Treasuries were firmer across the curve with yields down 7-11 bp; the 2Y yield is back around 4% and the 10Y back below 4.50%. The dollar index was down 0.4%. Gold was up 1.9%. Silver was down 0.4%. Bitcoin futures were down 2.4%. WTI crude was down 9.6%. (FactSet)
S&P 500 Sector Performance (Source: FactSet)
- Outperformers: Tech +4.56%, Consumer Disc. +1.50%
- Underperformers: Energy (5.43%), Consumer Staples (3.24%), Utilities (2.09%), Real Estate (1.36%), Financials (0.70%), Healthcare (0.28%), Communication Services (0.02%), Industrials +0.79%, Materials +1.20%
What happened last week?
- Markets continued to price in optimism toward an Iran resolution. US and Iranian negotiators have reached agreement on 60-day MOU to extend ceasefire. Trump has yet to give final approval, though met with advisers on Friday. Nuclear issues would likely be saved for future talks. While the US has pushed for a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has said it will reopen according to its own arrangements. (FactSet)
- The (limited) progress was enough to help push oil and yields lower. Analysts also highlighted a flattening of oil futures prices, while VIX and inflation break-evens both fell below pre-conflict levels. However, last week's April Core PCE also helped reaffirm the sticky inflation narrative, coming in at 3.3% y/y, the highest since Nov-23. (FactSet)
- Markets are now pricing ~12 bp of hikes through year-end, down from 25 bp a week ago. However, last week also saw some more hawkish-leaning Fedspeak as a number of officials said they remain open to rate hikes if warranted. (FactSet)
- Retail earnings offered mixed consumer takeaways. Cracks in the consumer resilience narrative were also accentuated by a deceleration in real PCE and the lowest savings rate in four years. (FactSet)
This week
- A busy macro week ahead includes today's May ISM Manufacturing; Tuesday's April JOLTS; Wednesday's ADP private payrolls, and May ISM Services; and Friday's May payrolls. Headline payrolls are expected to slow 15K to +100K, while average hourly earnings are expected to tick up 0.1 pp to 0.3% m/m, and the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.3%. (FactSet)
- In the very tail end of earnings season, reports this week include today's HPE; Tuesday's DG, PANW, ULTA; Wednesday's MDT, AVGO, CRWD, and VEEV; and Thursday's BF.B, CIEN, COO, and LULU. (FactSet)
Key Dates/Data Releases for this week (Source: Market Week)
- 6/1: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
- 6/2: JOLTS
- 6/3: S&P Global Services PMI
- 6/5: Employment Situation
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