Poljak Group Wealth Management | Shreveport, LA
Weekly Market Insight
Today's Market Recap
Dow +0.92%, S&P 500 +1.65%, Nasdaq +3.07%, Russell 2000 +0.72%
- US equities were higher in fairly uneventful Monday trading as stocks ended a bit off best levels. Major averages up for third-straight session, Dow and Russell ended at fresh record highs. S&P 500 less than 1% from its 2-Jun record close. Memory, semis rallied, Big Tech broadly higher with five of the Mag 7 up 2%+. Other outperformers included software, credit cards, IBs, PE, machinery, multis, building products, airlines, and cruise lines; retail-investor favorites, high beta, momentum also had a good day. Relative laggards included energy, regional banks, pharma, managed care, road/rail, aluminum, steel, ag chemicals, casual diners, media, department stores, staples, and telecom. Treasuries mostly firmer with curve bull steepening; yields down 2 bp at short-end. Dollar index down 0.1%. Gold finished up 2.7%, back above $4300/oz. Silver ended up 3.3%. Bitcoin futures up 4.7%. WTI crude finished down 4.9% at lowest close since 5-Mar. (FactSet)
- Risk-on move driven by weekend agreement between US and Iran to end war, reopen Strait of Hormuz starting Friday. MoU set to be signed in Switzerland on Friday. Deal helping sentiment, lowering inflation risk around energy disruptions, and slightly flattening Fed rate hike path (market pricing ~17 bp of hikes through year-end). However, a number of pieces remain unresolved. US cautioned it wouldn't end blockade until deal signed, while nuclear talks kicked to next round of negotiations. Iran also said it would allow ships to pass Strait of Hormuz free during 60 day negotiation period, though charge after, while Trump said passage should remain permanently toll-free. Other pieces of the bullish narrative include latest M&A tailwind (Dealogic data show announced global M&A at record levels), positive seasonality, expected CTA buying in flat- and up-market, earnings optimism. However, AI capex/ROI concerns (token costs continue to fall), uncertainty around AI policy (latest US restrictions on Anthropic), equity and debt supply, lingering private credit fears among pieces of bearish narrative. (FactSet)
- June Empire State manufacturing index missed with new orders index sharply lower, though employment index ticked higher, prices received slightly cooler. May industrial production missed. June NAHB builder confidence posted surprise decline with fall in current sales conditions index. Big focus this week on Wednesday's June FOMC meeting, the first led by new chair Warsh. Market expects hold, though now likely to lean more dovish given latest Iran war updates and path toward diminishing inflationary pressures. Meeting also comes with updated SEP, with dot plot, inflation under scrutiny given latest war updates. Other key macro data later this week include Wednesday's May retail sales, which is expected to accelerate slightly to 0.6% m/m, would be fourth-straight solid print after soft end of 2025/early 2026, reinforcing resilient consumer narrative. (FactSet)
Last Week's Market Recap (Monday, June 8th - Friday, June 12th)
Dow +0.66%, S&P +0.65%, Nasdaq +0.70%, Russell 2000 +3.90%
- Major US equity indices were higher last week following the prior week's lower performance. Breadth was positive with Equal-weight S&P outperforming official index by over ~120 bp, while Big tech was mostly lower. Russell 2000 was a bright spot, logging its best week since mid-April. (FactSet)
- Last week's outperformers included, small-caps, semis, industrial metals, cosmetics, beverages, apparel, casual diners, QSRs, cruise lines, banks, and credit cards. Underperformers included software, entertainment/media, space, China tech, payments, medical devices, and life sciences. (FactSet)
- Treasuries were firmer with some notable yield curve steepening. Dollar Index was down 0.3%. Bitcoin was up 5.3%. Gold finished down 2.9%. WTI crude settled down 6.3%. (FactSet)
S&P 500 Sector Performance (Source: FactSet)
- Outperformers: Materials +3.00%, Consumer Staples +2.59%, Financials +2.01%, Real Estate +1.31%, Industrials +1.12%, Consumer Disc. +0.73%
- Underperformers: Communication Services (1.90%), Energy (0.39%), Utilities +0.36%, Healthcare +0.52%, Tech +0.53%
What happened last week?
- Market locked in modest gains last week though not without some very volatile trading. Mid-week softness in semis and memory names weighed on major indices at times amid concerns around crowded positioning and overbought conditions. Unsettled geopolitical backdrop also served as a drag with situation still very fluid. However, market rebounded with analysts highlighting support from AI-driven capex, resilient earnings growth, positive economic-surprise momentum, and expectations for an eventual Iran deal. (FactSet)
- Market encouraged by reports the US and Iran are nearing a memorandum of understanding that could include a 60-day ceasefire extension, Hormuz reopening, Iranian commitments not to pursue nuclear weapons, and a framework for broader nuclear talks. A deal could reportedly be signed as soon as this week. While similar negotiations have stalled over key issues such as sanctions relief and Hormuz rights, optimism appears stronger this time amid corroborating reports from Iranian media. Still, oil markets remain somewhat skeptical, with December WTI futures still well-above pre-conflict levels despite expectations Hormuz could reopen within 30 days. Goldman Sachs last week noted it expects Gulf oil exports to normalize by late August (vs. late June previously). (FactSet)
- AI remained a key focus, highlighted by reports that OpenAI confidentially filed for an IPO and is pursuing initiatives to boost monetization (also reached 1B monthly users in May). Lots of investor attention also on SpaceX's massive $75B IPO, valuing the company at roughly $1.77T. (FactSet)
- Regarding inflation, May CPI was largely in line, with softer core inflation offset by still-elevated headline inflation driven mainly by energy prices. Core goods remained subdued, services inflation moderated, and economists said the report is unlikely to materially change the Fed's cautious stance. May PPI was mixed, with core inflation slightly cooling from April and coming in below expectations, while headline inflation remained elevated due largely to higher energy prices. Goods prices continued to drive overall inflation pressures. Key categories that feed into the Fed's preferred PCE measure were generally firmer. (FactSet)
- Regarding other economic releases, May's edition of NY Fed's SCE found household's year-ahead inflation expectations fell m/m, while labor market expectations deteriorated. Jobless claims ticked higher with initial claims now highest since Feb-26 after increasing for three straight weeks. May existing home sales were ahead of consensus amid improving affordability. Preliminary June consumer sentiment ahead of consensus, up from May's record low. (FactSet)
This week
- Notable macro events: Monday: Jun Empire State Manufacturing; May Industrial Production; Jun NAHB Housing Index; Tuesday: May Housing Starts; May Import Price Index; Wednesday: May Retail Sales, May Pending Home Sales; Thursday: Jobless Claims, Jun Philly Fed Index; Friday: N/A - market closed (FactSet)
- Notable earnings: Monday: N/A; Tuesday PM: LZB; Wednesday AM: KMX, JBL; Thursday AM: ACN, KR; Friday: N/A - market closed (FactSet)
Key Dates/Data Releases for this week (Source: Market Week)
- 6/15: Industrial production
- 6/16: Housing starts, import and export prices
- 6/17: FOMC meeting statement, retail sales
It is our pleasure to serve you! We created Market Insight to keep you informed and up to date on our current industry focus, as well as areas of concern and interest to our firm and clients. Our team will continue to closely monitor market and economic news and trends; we are actively tracking ongoing developments in the Middle East and other parts of the world and will share with you significant economic and market impacts.
Market Insightis one of the many ways you and your family can benefit from your relationship with Poljak Group—in addition to access to world-class resources, including leading investment research, expertise and technologies offered through our strategic partnership with Raymond James and Steward Partners. Please stay tuned each week for new editions of Poljak Group's Market Insight newsletter and review past issues on our website at www.PoljakGroup.com.
Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected.
Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
For index definitions click here
Gold is subject to the special risks associated with investing in precious metals, including but not limited to the risks that: price may be subject to wide fluctuation; the market is relatively limited; the Sources are concentrated in countries that have the potential for instability; and the market is unregulated.
In the event that you no longer wish to receive these commercial emails please reply to this email and in the body of the email request that we remove you from our email list.
The information contained within this commercial email has been obtained from Sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee the foregoing material is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation.
The opinions of Brian S. Wesbury are independent from and not necessarily those of Steward Partners. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Steward Partners or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
AdTrax 5717151.164 Exp 6/27