Poljak Group Wealth Management | Shreveport, LA
Weekly Market Insight
Today's Market Recap
Dow (0.16%), S&P 500 +0.30%, Nasdaq +0.86%, Russell 2000 +0.77%
- US equities closed mostly higher in today’s trading, though ended off best levels. Semis/memory were very strong as the groups rebounded off Friday's big declines. Other outperformers included energy, managed care, trucking, retail/apparel, autos/suppliers, and quantum computing; small-caps, most-shorted names, and retail-investor favorites also fared well. Software extended Friday's weakness. Other laggards included larger-cap banks, P&C insurance, payments, exchanges, pharma/biotech, E&Cs, A&D, airlines, ag chemicals, containerboard, HPCs, and China tech. (FactSet)
- Treasuries were unchanged to weaker at the long end, where yields were up 1-3 bp; followed big bear flattening move on Friday. Dollar index was off 0.1%. Gold finished fractionally lower. Silver was down 0.8%. Bitcoin futures were up 5.0% after dropping ~17% last week (worst since 2022). WTI crude settled up 0.8%, though came well off best levels. (FactSet)
- Equities rose Monday in something of a rebound from Friday's sharp selloff, though strength petered through the afternoon. Recovery plays into resilient equity market narrative, while strategists continue to highlight earnings growth, AI capex tailwind, and macro surprise momentum as broader tailwinds. Latest Iran updates netted out fairly neutral (weekend ramp in hostilities between Iran and Israel appears to have ended for now). Not much progress toward peace agreement, though market continues to expect a deal will ultimately be reached, though no signs this will happen soon. Underwhelming takeaways from AAPL's WWDC event resulted in some drag later in the session though earlier tech/AI headlines were more positive. Some strategists pushed back on equity-supply concerns ahead of SpaceX IPO, noting increased issuance/IPOs to be offset by ongoing buybacks, M&A. (FactSet)
Last Week's Market Recap (Monday, June 1st - Friday, June 5th)
Dow (0.32%), S&P (2.59%), Nasdaq (4.68%), Russell 2000 (2.94%)
- Major US equity indices were down last week. The S&P broke a nine-week streak of gains, and the index had risen for nine straight sessions through 2-Jun, when it set its most recent record high. That said, the Mag 7 group and larger-cap tech were among the key weak spots, and the equal-weight S&P was only down 0.5% for the week. (FactSet)
- Semis/memory took a break from their recent strength. Software was another laggard. Other underperformers included airlines, multis, restaurants, credit cards, exchanges, and chemicals; most-shorted names and retail-investor favorites were also weaker. Last week's outperformers included managed care, larger-cap banks, IBs, pharma, machinery, road/rail, and energy. (FactSet)
- Treasuries were weaker with some notable curve flattening. Last week's yield backup accelerated on Friday in the wake of a stronger-than-expected May jobs report. The dollar was stronger on the major crosses; DXY +1.2%. Gold finished down 5.0%; silver lost 8.9% in its fourth-straight weekly decline. Bitcoin futures were down nearly 17% for the week, its worst since November 2022. WTI crude settled up 3.6% for the week in response to continued uncertainty about the path toward a negotiated agreement in the Mideast. (FactSet)
S&P 500 Sector Performance (Source: FactSet)
- Outperformers: Energy +2.46%, Healthcare +2.31%, Real Estate +1.52%, Financials +1.31%, Consumer Staples +0.95%, Industrials +0.58%, Utilities (0.31%), Materials (1.24%)
- Underperformers: Consumer Disc. (6.20%), Tech (5.42%), Communication Services (3.91%)
What happened last week?
- The big story last week was the dip in semis/memory and select AI names, accompanied by a rotation into defensives, financials, and healthcare. There was also some attention on an Anthropic blog post discussing the potential attractiveness of slowing AI development and ongoing discussions about token costs/token-maxxing. But these factors more dulled than derailed the AI tailwind, and came alongside further discussion of very extended momentum outperformance (and the possible index risk from an unwind). (FactSet)
- There was no real movement on the US-Iran conflict despite the prior week's hopes that a memorandum of understanding was close which could lead to a 60-day ceasefire and further negotiation on sticking points. In contrast, last week saw the US conducting more "self-defense" strikes at targets in southern Iran while Gulf nations responded to inbound missile and drone attacks. There was some hope an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire could help diplomatic efforts, but Hezbollah refused to sign on. Overall, expectations remain tilted more toward a negotiated settlement than a return to fighting, but the sides seem to remain far apart on key items including nuclear material, freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the timing of sanctions relief. (FactSet)
- It was a big week of labor-market data. May nonfarm payrolls printed well above consensus and the prior two months were revised higher (three-month average now highest since March 2024) in the latest sign of ongoing labor-market improvement. The release followed strong reports on April JOLTS job openings and ADP private payrolls (though initial jobless claims hit their highest weekly level since February). It also came against an ongoing drumbeat layoff/headcount-reduction announcements. (FactSet)
- Elsewhere, May ISM manufacturing and services reports were both better than expected, though still some thoughts that the former may be being helped by front-loading; respondent commentary for both was cautious. The Fed's most recent Beige Book report showed stable employment and somewhat higher inflation, but also ongoing references to uncertainties weighing on sentiment. (FactSet)
- Among the other items of note last week, there were discussions around equity supply ahead of the looming mega-IPO wave that includes this week's ~$75B SpaceX IPO. Fedspeak continued to lean hawkish with comments from Hammack and Logan involving possible hikes to help contain inflation. Some press on new Fed Chair Warsh discussed the possibility he will begin dialing back forward guidance statements. And the Trump administration began rolling out new tariff proposals as it seeks to recover ground lost after the Supreme Court's decision against IEEPA emergency tariffs. (FactSet)
This week
- Economic releases will include NFIB small-business optimism and existing-home sales (Tuesday); CPI (Wednesday); PPI, jobless claims, and industrial production (Thursday); and preliminary June UMich consumer sentiment (Friday). (FactSet)
- The earnings calendar is very light, though features SJM (premarket Tuesday), ORCL (post-close Wednesday), and ADBE and LEN (post-close Thursday). Apple will host its annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) this week, with the keynote on Monday. (FactSet)
- The US Treasury will auction $119B in debt this week, including $58B in 3Y notes (Tuesday), $39B in 10Y notes (Wednesday), and $22B in 30Y bonds (Thursday). (FactSet)
- No Fed speakers are on the calendar given the blackout period ahead of the 17-18 June FOMC meeting. (FactSet)
Key Dates/Data Releases for this week (Source: Market Week)
- 6/9: International trade in goods and services, existing home sales
- 6/10: Consumer Price Index, Treasury statement
- 6/11: Producer Price Index
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