Poljak Group Wealth Management | Shreveport, LA
Weekly Market Insight
Today's Market Recap
Dow +0.59%, S&P 500 +1.18%, Nasdaq +2.07%, Russell 2000 +0.01%
- US equities finished mostly higher in Monday trading, ending near best levels. S&P 500 rose after five straight daily declines, though index had more decliners than gainers. Big tech was mostly higher, software was a bit better, and semis/semicaps were mostly stronger. Other outperformers included media, networking/communications, pharma/biotech, space, refiners, and payments; retail-investor favorites fared well. Laggards included managed care, PE, exchanges, airlines, oil services, E&Ps, retail/apparel, homebuilders, restaurants, steel, commodity chemicals, staples retailers, beverages, REITs, utilities, and telecom. Treasuries were mixed with the curve flattening; yields were up 1-2 bp at front end. Dollar index was off 0.3%. Yen earlier touched a 40-year low vs the dollar. Gold finished down 1.4%. Silver dropped 1.7%. Bitcoin futures were up 1.0% in choppy trading. WTI crude settled up 2.2%, back above $70/barrel. (FactSet)
- SCOTUS ruled Fed Governor Cook can remain in her role while litigation over her removal proceeds. Dallas Fed manufacturing a bit below consensus though still reported steady new orders and rising employment. (FactSet)
Last Week's Market Recap (Monday, June 22nd - Friday, June 26th)
Dow +0.60%, S&P 500 (1.95%), Nasdaq (4.60%), Russell 2000 +1.02%
- Major US equity indices were mixed last week following the previous week's higher performance. Nasdaq was the worst index performer dragged down by Big tech. (FactSet)
- Other underperformers included semis, tech hardware, space, China tech, off-priced retail, IBs, exchanges, and industrial/precious metals. Outperformers included healthcare sector, utilities, consumer staples, machinery, railways, airlines, waste, trucking, payments, P&C insurance. (FactSet)
- Treasuries were firmer with the yield curve flattening. Dollar Index was up 0.5%. BTC was down 4.6%. Gold finished down 3.5%. WTI crude settled down 8.7%, now back near pre-conflict levels. (FactSet)
S&P 500 Sector Performance (Source: FactSet)
- Outperformers: Healthcare +7.89%, Real Estate +3.95%, Utilities +3.91%, Consumer Staples +1.52%, Energy +0.73%, Industrials +0.49%, Financials +0.48%, Materials (0.12%)
- Underperformers: Communication Services (6.22%), Tech (5.40%), Consumer Disc. (2.72%)
What happened last week?
- Markets were mixed last week with AI remaining the dominant theme as Iran war continued to take a backseat. Early-week softness in semis and memory was driven largely by positioning and market concentration concerns, while actual fundamentals remained solid. Those concerns were largely offset by Micron's blowout earnings and guidance, which reinforced confidence in the AI capex cycle and sustained memory demand. Rotation was another defining theme amid broadening out trade lifting cyclicals (industrials, banks, homebuilders, small caps) as investors expanded beyond Big tech names. (FactSet)
- Meanwhile, macro focus shifted away from geopolitics and back toward the Fed, inflation and rates. Both BofA and Deutsche Bank said they now see Fed rate hikes this year (BofA at 75 bp and Deutsche Bank at 50 bp). Meanwhile, oil fell to its pre-Iran war levels amid acceleration of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg reported Persian Gulf crude exports have recovered to at least 75% of pre-war levels, with Hormuz shipments reaching their highest since the war began, though still below historical norms amid some concerns about the durability of the 60-Day peace agreement. On Thursday, IRGC attacked a vessel in Hormuz and warned that transits without Tehran's coordination would face enforcement, however, market largely brushed off. (FactSet)
- Regarding data flow last week, 1) May core PCE was in line with consensus with May personal spending and personal income both higher than expected; 2) Initial jobless claims were better than expected though continuing claims were increased; 3) Flash June PMIs showed business accelerating activity, lower employment, though with still-elevated prices; 4) May new home sales missed and were weakest since January; 5) Final June consumer sentiment rose from April and inflation expectations eased, though still sentiment still below pre-conflict levels. (FactSet)
This week
- Notable macro events: Monday: Jun Dalls Fed Index; Tuesday: Apr S&P Case Shiller, Jun Chicago PMI, Jun Consumer Confidence, May JOLTS Job Opening; Wednesday: Jun ADP Employment, Jun S&P Manufacturing PMI, Jun ISM Manufacturing; Thursday: Jun Nonfarm Payrolls, Jobless Claims, May Factory Orders; Friday: Market Closed for 4th of July Holiday. (FactSet)
- Notable earnings: Monday AM: N/A; Monday PM: AVAV; Tuesday AM: N/A; Tuesday PM: STZ, NKE; Wednesday AM: FDS, GIS; Wednesday PM: N/A; Thursday AM: N/A; Thursday PM: N/A; Friday: N/A. (FactSet)
Key Dates/Data Releases for this week (Source: Market Week)
- 6/30: JOLTS
- 7/1: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
- 7/2: Employment Situation
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