Poljak Group Wealth Management | Shreveport, LA
Weekly Market Insight
Today's Market Recap
Dow +0.29%, S&P 500 +0.72%, Nasdaq +1.12%, Russell 2000 +0.45%
- US equities finished higher in Monday trading, ending a bit off best levels. Overall breadth was positive, though S&P 500 decliners outnumbered gainers and equal-weight S&P 500 trailed cap-weighted index by ~70 bp. Semis, memory were big outperformers, with AI infrastructure also a standout. Big tech was mostly higher. Other outperformers included networking/communications, tech hardware, E&Cs, machinery, multis, larger-cap banks, IBs, PE, autos/ suppliers, and China tech. Software was more mixed though cybersecurity firms solid. Laggards included pharma/biotech, managed care, homebuilders, housing-related retail, restaurants, P&C insurers, payments, staples, commodity chemicals, paper/packaging, and utilities. Treasuries were mostly firmer with the curve steepening; yields down 5-6 bp at the front end. Dollar index was flat. Gold finished up 1.0%. Silver was up 2.1%. Bitcoin futures were up 3.8%. WTI crude settled down 0.2%. (FactSet)
- Today's big story was the momentum rebound, coming after a two-day slump. No specific catalyst but some analyst discussion about extent of drawdown and some attribution to positioning and seasonality. Some help today from continued AI capex optimism with boost from latest AI infrastructure/capacity agreements. Broadening-out trade took a breather though a lot of recent commentary on more stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages and wider sector participation (Financials the top sector MTD). Not much else in the headlines. Some attention pulled ahead to expected strong Samsung results Tuesday, FOMC minutes Wednesday, Trump's attendance at the NATO summit, and SK Hynix's ~$28B US IPO Friday, though big focus will be opening of Q2 earnings season next week (expectations for a second-straight Q of 20%+ EPS growth). (FactSet)
Last Week's Market Recap (Monday, June 29th - Friday, July 2nd)
Dow +1.97%, S&P 500 +1.76%, Nasdaq +2.12%, Russell 2000 (0.46%)
- Major US equity indices were mostly higher last week, following the prior week's mixed performance. Gains were relatively broad-based. Nasdaq was the best index performer helped by strength in big tech. (FactSet)
- Last week's outperformers included software, media, pharma/biotech, managed care, exchanges, insurance, China tech, railways, and defense. Underperformers included semis/memory, homebuilders, networking//comms, cruise lines, apparel, machinery, steel, and energy sector. (FactSet)
- Treasuries were weaker with yields up across the curve. Dollar Index was down 0.5%. Gold was up 0.7%. WTI crude was down 0.8%, at pre-war levels as Strait of Hormuz flows continue to recover faster than expected. (FactSet)
S&P 500 Sector Performance (Source: FactSet)
- Outperformers: Communication Services +4.93%, Financials +3.71%, Consumer Disc. +2.76%, Healthcare +2.01%
- Underperformers: Real Estate (1.48%), Utilities (1.04%), Energy (0.98%), Consumer Staples +0.11%, Tech +0.88%, Materials +1.06%, Industrials +1.41%
What happened last week?
- It was a relatively uneventful week. AI remained the dominant theme again despite bouts of momentum unwinding. Big tech and semis outperformed earlier in the week on positioning and continued AI enthusiasm, before giving back some gains midweek amid profit-taking and rotation into other areas (e.g., financials, healthcare, consumer, and software). Discussion also shifted beyond AI demand toward market concentration, model competition from China, excess compute, and memory competition after reports that META is launching a cloud business and AAPL in talks with Chinese memory suppliers. Even so, ahead of upcoming earnings season, expectations are for another quarter of 20%+ earnings growth with tailwinds from AI capex boom and oil. (FactSet)
- Geopolitical risks continued to firmly take a backseat as macro focus shifted back to the labor market and Fed policy. June nonfarm payrolls came in weaker than expected and prior months were revised lower, though the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined as labor-force participation fell. Markets largely welcomed the report, viewing it as supportive of the resilient-growth narrative while also causing a dovish shift in Fed rate decision expectations. Market now currently pricing ~17% chance of July hike vs ~30% chance before NFP report. In other Fed news, Supreme Court denied the Trump administration's request to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook (as largely expected). (FactSet)
- Regarding other economic releases last week; 1) June ADP private payrolls missed with report noting uneven hiring; 2) June ISM Manufacturing was mostly in line with prices index lower, employment slightly higher, new orders steady; 3) Jobless claims were steady, while May JOLTS job openings were essentially unchanged from April; 4) June consumer confidence was below consensus amid worsening views on labor market and lingering inflation concerns from energy shock. (FactSet)
This week
- Notable macro events: Monday: Final June S&P Global PMI, June ISM Services; Tuesday: May Trade Balance; Wednesday: FOMC Minutes; Thursday: Jobless Claims, June Existing Home Sales; Friday: N/A (FactSet)
- Notable earnings: Monday: N/A; Tuesday: N/A; Wednesday PM: LEVI; Thursday AM: CTAS, PEP, PSNY; Friday AM: DAL (FactSet)
Key Dates/Data Releases for this week (Source: Market Week)
- 7/6: S&P Global Services PMI
- 7/7: International trade in goods and services
- 7/9: Existing home sales
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