Poljak Group Wealth Management | Shreveport, LA
Weekly Market Insight
Today's Market Recap
Dow (0.13%) S&P 500 +0.12%, Nasdaq +0.20%, Russell 2000 +0.04%
- US equities finished mostly higher in Monday trading, ending near best levels. Big tech was mostly stronger. Other outperformers included memory, cybersecurity, banks, insurers, credit cards, energy, managed care, hospitals, E&Cs, apparel, and quantum computing; retail-investor favorites also fared well. Semis were lower with SOX breaking a streak of 18 consecutive daily gains. Other laggards included networking/communications, PE, exchanges, staples, pharma/biotech, airlines, A&D, restaurants, hotels, cruise lines, and China tech. Treasuries were weaker with a touch of curve steepening; yields were up 2-3 bp. Today's 2Y and 5Y auctions both tailed. Dollar index was off 0.1%. Gold finished down 1.0%; silver was off 1.8%. Bitcoin futures were down 1.1%. WTI crude settled up 2.0%, though ended off best levels; added to last week's 14%+ run higher. (FactSet)
- It was a relatively quiet session ahead of a major week of corporate earnings (180 S&P constituents and 5 members of the Mag 7). Latest data show EPS earnings growth near 15% with more than a quarter of the S&P 500 having reported. Not much impact from still-noisy Iran headlines today; weekend's unfulfilled promise of face-to-face talks has been widely shrugged off with the market assumption that negotiations will continue, and a long/bumpy resolution process is more likely than a return to a hot war. Diminished Fed leadership drama after NC's Sen. Tillis said he would support Kevin Warsh's nomination for chair (committee vote this Wednesday). Other bullish themes include surging AI compute/infrastructure demand, solid economic backdrop, resilient US consumer, and ongoing industrial cyclical recovery. But still worries about complacency around energy disruptions, uncertainty about war-related input cost pressures, and concerns about elevated capex. (FactSet)
- A lot of focus ahead of an extremely busy earnings week; 180 S&P constituents will be reporting this week. (FactSet)
Last Week's Market Recap (Monday, April 20th - Friday, April 24th)
Dow (0.44%) S&P +0.55%, Nasdaq +1.50%, Russell 2000 +0.36%
- Major US equity indices were mostly higher last week. The S&P and Nasdaq notched their fourth straight weekly gains, both ending at fresh all-time closing highs; the small-cap Russell logged its fifth straight weekly advance. That said, narrow breadth was also a focus: the equal weight S&P was down 0.6% after three consecutive weeks higher. (FactSet)
- Semis had a very strong week with the SOX on an 18-day string of gains through last Friday. Other outperformers included energy (crude), managed care, road/rail, commodity chemicals, homebuilders, and building products. Software was mixed after a big Thursday drop impacted by some disappointing earnings results. Other underperformers included airlines, A&D, MedTech, hospitals, pharma/biotech, banks, PE, credit cards, paper/packaging, media, and apparel. Retail-investor favorites, most-shorted names also struggled last week. (FactSet)
- Treasuries rallied on Friday but were lower for the week, with yields up 7-8 bp at the shorter end of the curve. The dollar was stronger on the major crosses, particularly vs the yen and euro; DXY +0.4%. Gold finished down 2.8%; silver was off 6.6%. Bitcoin futures were flat on the week. WTI crude was up 14.3% following two weeks of declines on Iran ceasefire developments. (FactSet)
S&P 500 Sector Performance (Source: FactSet)
- Outperformers: Energy +3.21%, Tech +3.09%, Consumer Staples +1.17%
- Underperformers: Healthcare (3.09%), Financials (1.88%), Real Estate (1.48%), Communication Services (0.77%), Industrials (0.56%), Consumer Disc. (0.29%), Materials +0.05%, Utilities +0.07%
What happened last week?
- US-Iran headlines were extremely noisy last week but overall conformed to the market's base case of a continued ceasefire and likely bumpy progress toward some type of agreement. Trump extended his ceasefire deadline but plans for another round of face-to-face talks only began to coalesce on Friday, with Witkoff and Kushner expected to travel to Pakistan for direct talks with Iranian officials; VP Vance will be on standby to travel if needed. (FactSet)
- That said, the war did not seem to be uppermost in the market's mind last week (despite some knee-jerk headline reactions), with investors apparently very eager to move on from geopolitics. The robust Q1 earnings season was a major story, with the blended earnings growth rate for S&P constituents topping 15%. The proportion of companies beating earnings estimates and the magnitude of those beats remains above recent averages, though the market is rewarding those beats by less than recent trends. (FactSet)
- It was a light week of economic updates, with March retail sales the big report: headline sale jumped sharply m/m with help from gas prices, but control-group sales also came in well above consensus. March pending-home sales were stronger, with the release noting signs of pent-up demand despite higher mortgage rates. Flash PMIs beat for both services and manufacturing, with the latter report noting the strongest new orders since May 2022. Initial jobless claims remained contained though there was a small uptick in continuing claims. The final UMich consumer sentiment index for April printed a bit higher than the preliminary read but still came in at a record low. (FactSet)
- There was attention last week on the confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh's nomination for Fed chair. Ultimately, the event broke little new ground but threw the political divide into sharp relief with numerous questions about Warsh's views on policy independence given a president who has been vocal on interest-rate policy. The committee was not expected to immediately advance Warsh's nomination to the full senate due to Sen. Tillis's (R-NC) pledge to object to any new Fed nominees until the White House concludes its investigation into Chair Powell's handling of the Fed's HQ renovation. However, Friday's news that the DoJ has dropped the investigation in favor of an investigation by the Fed's Inspector General's office will likely ease the way for Warsh to be seated. (FactSet)
- Overall, the market continued its return to a generally bullish narrative helped by robust earnings, a resilient consumer, and the ongoing AI demand/infrastructure buildout theme. But at the same time, there was also discussion of waning support from systematic re-risking, concerns about elevated capex, and uncertainty about the flow-through of input-cost pressures related to the war (and how long crude disruptions will continue to be felt). And on that front, while assumptions are that the US and Iran are now in a diplomatic phase, tensions remain high and the military posture in the region still leaves open the possibility, however small, for a return to a hot war. (FactSet)
This week
- The Fed remains in the blackout period ahead of its 28-29 April FOMC meeting, with a decision coming on Wednesday followed by a Powell press conference. Expectations remain very firm that policymakers will hold rates steady (indeed, the market is not fully pricing in a Fed rate cut until September 2027). (FactSet)
- In terms of economic releases, today brought the Dallas Fed manufacturing report; Tuesday will have ADP's weekly private employment estimate, the February FHFA and Case-Shiller home price indices, April consumer confidence, and Richmond Fed manufacturing. Wednesday sees preliminary March durable-goods orders and March housing starts/permits; Thursday there will be the first read of Q1 GDP, March PCE, jobless claims, and Chicago PMI. Friday will bring April ISM Manufacturing. Note April nonfarm payrolls will be released next Friday. (FactSet)
- The Treasury will also be auctioning $183B in debt, including $69B in 2s and $70B in 5s (both on Monday) and $44B in 7s (Tuesday). (FactSet)
- This week will see another big step-up in Q1 earnings releases, with 180 S&P constituents reporting including five of the Magnificent 7 names: AMZN, GOOGL, META, and MSFT post-close Wednesday; AAPL post-close Thursday. Other notable reporters this week include LLY, XOM, V, MA, CAT, CVX, ABBV, KO, MRK, VZ, COP, and QCOM. (FactSet)
Key Dates/Data Releases for this week (Source: Market Week)
- 4/29: Durable goods orders, housing starts, international trade in goods, FOMC meeting statement
- 4/30: GDP, Personal Income and Outlays
- 5/1: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
It is our pleasure to serve you! We created Market Insight to keep you informed and up to date on our current industry focus, as well as areas of concern and interest to our firm and clients. Our team will continue to closely monitor market and economic news and trends; we are actively tracking ongoing developments in the Middle East and other parts of the world and will share with you significant economic and market impacts.
Market Insightis one of the many ways you and your family can benefit from your relationship with Poljak Group—in addition to access to world-class resources, including leading investment research, expertise and technologies offered through our strategic partnership with Raymond James and Steward Partners. Please stay tuned each week for new editions of Poljak Group's Market Insight newsletter and review past issues on our website at www.PoljakGroup.com.
Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected.
Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
For index definitions click here
Gold is subject to the special risks associated with investing in precious metals, including but not limited to the risks that: price may be subject to wide fluctuation; the market is relatively limited; the Sources are concentrated in countries that have the potential for instability; and the market is unregulated.
In the event that you no longer wish to receive these commercial emails please reply to this email and in the body of the email request that we remove you from our email list.
The information contained within this commercial email has been obtained from Sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee the foregoing material is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation.
The opinions of Brian S. Wesbury are independent from and not necessarily those of Steward Partners. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Steward Partners or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
AdTrax 5717151.156 Exp 4/27